You Can’t Manage What You Can’t Measure: The Limits of Data-Driven Talent Identification

It’s a revealing contradiction. While 63% of the participating executives across the consumer goods and retail sectors increasingly use quantifiable performance metrics to spot top performers, many (30%) still find these methods only moderately effective. The question is no longer whether we have the data – it’s whether we’re using it well, or relying on it too much at the expense of human judgement.

When Metrics Fall Short

The study shows that organisations are placing greater emphasis on structured performance indicators and KPIs to evaluate talent. At face value, this reflects a positive shift towards objectivity and evidence-based decision-making. However, a deeper dive reveals the cracks: despite widespread use of these tools, many leaders admit they don’t fully trust them to capture the nuances of individual capability and future potential.

Why? Because performance data, by its nature, is retrospective. It tells you how someone has performed, not necessarily how they will perform in a new context, role, or challenge. It tends to reward visible output and short-term wins, often overlooking less tangible—but no less critical—traits like emotional intelligence, adaptability under pressure, and learning agility.

This over-reliance on the measurable often leads to a narrow definition of ‘top performance’. And that’s where gut feeling creeps back in.

The Intuition Dilemma

Intuition remains a vital ingredient in talent decisions—especially among senior leaders who have built careers on reading people, navigating uncertainty, and trusting their instincts. But relying too heavily on ‘gut feel’ is risky. It opens the door to unconscious bias, favouritism, and a lack of transparency—problems that data was supposed to solve in the first place.

Still, abandoning intuition altogether is equally flawed. The truth lies in balance. Intuition is most powerful when it is informed by experience and validated by data. Rather than viewing it as unscientific, progressive organisations are beginning to see intuition as a form of expert pattern recognition—something that can complement structured assessments when channelled through the right frameworks.

Towards a More Balanced Model

So how do we bring these worlds together? The answer lies in building bias-resistant systems that integrate the best of both. Organisations should not be forced to choose between human insight and data—they should build environments where both can thrive.

Here are three ways to move towards a more balanced, evidence-informed model of talent identification:

1. Combine behavioural MU Leadership Advisory with performance data: Use structured tools e.g. the MU Leadership Assessment to measure core leadership ‘Fit for the future’ competencies like performance, strategic thinking, adaptability, and emotional intelligence—those traits that don’t always show up in performance dashboards but are critical for long-term success.
2. Broaden the feedback lens: Incorporate 360° feedback and cross-functional reviews to capture different perspectives and reduce individual bias. When multiple data points converge on the same conclusion, you can trust the outcome more.
3. Facilitate leadership calibration sessions: Create forums where leaders collectively review talent, challenge assumptions, and reach consensus. These sessions are powerful because they allow instinct to be surfaced, scrutinised, and either validated or rebalanced with evidence.

Done well, this hybrid approach can lead to more fair, inclusive, and effective talent decisions—without sacrificing speed or clarity.

What the Research Tells Us About Today’s Leadership Gaps

Another critical insight from the MU Executive Barometer is the continued rise of strategic thinking (59%), empowerment (54%) adaptability (53%), and focus on results (53%), as top leadership competencies. However, the research also highlights a growing gap in empathy. Despite all the emphasis on human-centric leadership in recent years, empathy still scores significantly lower (19%) than other traits when leaders are assessed against it.

This signals an important challenge: the skills we’re measuring—and rewarding—may not be the ones we truly need. In volatile, uncertain environments, leaders who can inspire trust, connect with their teams, and foster psychological safety will be better positioned to unlock performance and retain top talent.

And yet, many of these capabilities are difficult to measure—and even harder to train.

The Way Forward

What’s clear from the 2025 data is that organisations in consumer & retail can no longer afford to take a one-dimensional view of talent. Identifying and developing future leaders requires more than chasing quarterly KPIs. It demands a more holistic understanding of what potential looks like—and the courage to build systems that balance science with human judgement.

To achieve this, talent strategies must evolve in three directions:

1. Evidence-based and human-led: Data should inform decisions, not dictate them. Human insight still matters—especially when it’s structured, collaborative, and challenged constructively.
2. Bias-aware, not bias-free: Acknowledge that every system has its flaws, and actively design processes that surface and mitigate bias, rather than pretend it doesn’t exist.
3. People-first leadership development: Prioritise empathy and learning agility just as highly as results delivery. Not only are these traits increasingly important—they’re also what younger generations expect in their leaders.

Conclusion

“You can’t manage what you can’t measure” has become a modern mantra in business. But when it comes to talent, what’s even more dangerous is managing only what you can measure.

As the MU Executive Barometer results make clear, it’s time to rethink how we define and detect high potential. A more nuanced, hybrid approach—where data and intuition work together—will lead to better decisions, stronger leadership pipelines, and more resilient organisations.

After all, people don’t follow KPIs. They follow leaders!